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The other day, we had a picnic with extended family and conversation turned to Coronavirus scare. When I mentioned that we are planning to go to Japan in the early summer, my husband’s cousin (who happens to be a registered nurse), turned to me with a horrified look on her face and said that she would cancel. It wasn’t so much medical advice, but reflected the overall state of unease with going to Asia in a near future.
So I figured I should write a post with my own thoughts on the matter. In no way is it meant to be taken as advice, but rather my personal (unqualified) opinion. But first let me address the obvious. This whole matter is incredibly trivial compared to what folks are having to go through in the hardest hit region of China. People are dying and families are terrified, unable to leave Hubei province. They don’t have a choice, unlike me. Whether we end up going to Japan or not is of no consequence in the grand scheme of things.
Another thing. As it usually happens in this type of situations, many people (a term used loosely) crawl out of internet gutter and unleash xenophobia on the masses. This time is no exception. So, if you are ethnic Chinese and are disgusted by what you have read lately, as a white person, I’m right there with you.
Separating hysteria from facts (is hard)
The biggest issue with this virus is that we still don’t know enough about it. I’m sure that will change as the time goes by, but right now internet is filled with conspiracy theories. Reddit is full of doomsday preppers, and Twitter warriors with no first-hand knowledge keep sharing links to dubious news articles. It’s crazy.
Looking for actual facts is very difficult because WHO organization has no choice but to release statistics given to them by China. I have zero interest in turning this into anything remotely political, but it doesn’t take a genius to be a bit skeptical of the numbers. For example, I saw one official report where China claimed they had only several hundred deaths from regular flu last year. In a country of billions.
It’s a bit harder for them to control the Coronavirus narrative, as there are so many leaked reports (from people who are actually there) indicating the situation is much worse than it is reported. People are saying neighbors are dying in their homes before getting tested for the new virus. Others are turned away when trying to get admitted to the hospital. If you don’t get tested, you don’t get counted toward the official total of those who are infected.
What are the true numbers? Hard to say, but the quarantine on Diamond Princess IMO provides a good clue. Out of 3200 passengers, 120 (so far) have been confirmed to have the virus or about 3.8%. All of it from just one infected passenger! A 3.8% of 11 million in Wuhan amounts to 456K people. Obviously, controlled environment of a cruise ship will be a bit different from a city. Still, considering the density of the population, it’s not crazy to assume that the real numbers of infected are much higher than reported. Once again, I haven’t studied biology beyond high school, but I can do simple math. BTW, I’m seriously rethinking ever going again on a cruise, though a good deal will probably change my mind.
The long-winded point I’m trying to make is that this is a serious problem that may not go away for a long time. Despite containment efforts, it will likely spill over to other regions of the country. I almost booked a detour to China after our trip to Japan. I really wanted to stop in Beijing, but decided it would be too much to tackle at this particular time. I’m very glad because I would absolutely be canceling it right now. There is no doubt in my mind.
Even though we are planning to go in early summer, I would not be comfortable taking that chance. Yes, many experts are saying that the virus should be gone in the spring. But again, no one knows. It could also mutate and become an even bigger headache.
I guess one of the reasons I feel this way is because I have a first-hand experience with virus that turned into pneumonia. When I was twelve, that’s exactly what happened to me. I have vivid memories of collapsing in our living room and waking up in the hospital with an oxygen mask over my face. I was a healthy child with no pre-existing conditions. Fortunately, I got better and ended up getting released after three weeks. Years later, while looking at my scan, an American doctor mentioned that he could see permanent damage from pneumonia in my lungs.
I’m not trying to compare the two situations or sound like a scaremonger. Bottom line: there is no way I would personally feel comfortable taking my family to a place that recently went through a scary epidemic. I don’t care if officials say it’s contained, which I hope happens very soon for the sake of all those poor people.
I consider myself a reasonable person. I realize I can’t control all the risks associated with travel or life in general. But I also don’t see a point in a vacation where I feel nervous the entire time.
Why I still plan on going to Japan (for now)
At the moment, I don’t have plans to cancel our trip, though that may obviously change in the future. There is no guarantee that we will be safe from the new virus there, but our chances are much better than they would be in mainland China. Who knows what the situation will be like in a few months, but I am not super concerned right now. And hopefully, the virus is seasonal in nature, and will be gone by May.
Based on reports, I believe it’s safe to conclude that it’s not like Ebola that kills 50% of those infected. Even if current 2% mortality rate holds true (I actually suspect it’s lower based on Diamond Princess situation), the odds would be overwhelmingly in our favor. Even with my damaged lungs, I would likely recover. At least I hope so!
Honestly, if this thing turns into a worldwide pandemic, travel will probably be the least of our worries anyway.
Readers, are you canceling your Asia trip this year?
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Author: Leana
Leana is the founder of Miles For Family. She enjoys beach vacations and visiting her family in Europe. Originally from Belarus, Leana resides in central Florida with her husband and two children.
I was dreaming of an Asian cruise, starting in Hong Kong and going to places like Mainland China, South Korea, several ports in Japan, and ending in Tokyo. My ethnic Chinese husband (who speaks only English) and I (I’m white, and I can read a bit of Chinese thanks to Chineasy but can’t speak it) would be comfortable in Hong Kong where we could speak English and have our fill of good dim sum for a few days before boarding the ship. Flying home out of Tokyo also probably wouldn’t have been difficult for us since it’s such a large international city. All of these plans ended when China started strong-arming Hong Kong months ago, before the Coronavirus came into play. So, no, the virus hasn’t changed our plans, because they were changed already by China’s actions against Hong Kong.
@Marianne There is definitely a lot of unrest in that part of the world at the moment! We were actually thinking about booking a cruise in Japan. I’m so glad I didn’t. I’m sure eventually things will settle down, but it would make me feel uneasy, to say the least. We may very well end up scrapping the whole thing anyway. Fortunately, I booked a stay in Hawaii before Japan, so we could possibly extend it and visit other islands. I hope it doesn’t come to that, but some things are simply out of our control.
Sure am. Was thinking about a Japan, Hong Kong trip next summer. That has been put on hold even though I’m sure that everything will be fine. We will revisit this trip next year.
@Nat I understand. If my trip wasn’t booked already, I would probably choose another destination for this year. As it stands, I’ve put so much time and effort, it would be a shame to walk away now. Obviously, I will if situation in Japan deteriorates over the next few months. For now, I don’t see a reason for panic. But everyone should do what they are comfortable with.
I’ve got a Japan trip planned for late April/early May.
Same thoughts as you, will be monitoring the situation. One of the reasons I love award tickets – very flexible cancellation for flights and hotels.
@Rachel Hope it all works out for both of us! I agree, award tickets provide more flexibility. I also have travel insurance policy that allows me to cancel for any reason. Plus, if the situation becomes more serious in other parts of Asia, I’m sure airlines will provide cancellation waivers.
We canceled a trip to Taiwan, Thailand and Singapore this week. It was not only the possibility of getting sick, but travel interruptions, and canceled tours (Thailand) because others had canceled. All three of these countries have attracted a large percentage of Chinese tourist groups and we didn’t want to be stuck on a plane or a tourist bus under these circumstances. Plus it was a 24 day trip. What will conditions be like at the end of February? What happens if one of us has a small fever (unrelated to coronavirus) as we pass thru each airport? We saw Taipei photos where 95% of the people are wearing masks. Not a good look. Actually getting the virus was just a small part of the fear of taking this trip.
@Ray Makes sense. Timing is definitely a big factor. If our trip to Japan was scheduled within a month, I’m not sure I would feel 100% comfortable going. So much uncertainty at the moment. Right now I still have a few months left, and hope the situation will resolve itself. Hopefully, this virus is indeed seasonal as many experts suspect.
We have a family Trip planed to Thailand Via ICN and my wife said no way Jose. Paying the change fee to go somewhere else. Worried about our little kids and being in a airplane for 24 hours. If something happened she would kill me. Not worth the chance.
@Brian Honestly, if your wife feels this way, then it’s better to cancel. You can always go another time when things settle down a bit. I asked my husband for his thoughts on the virus, and he said we should go ahead with our existing plans. I would go somewhere else if he felt differently. Of course, we will be monitoring the situation closely. We aren’t supposed to connect in China and won’t be staying in a large hotel until our last two nights in Japan. Hopefully, we will be safe.
Leana is naive for trivializing the viral threat. Japan is closer proximity to China and as we have seen with the Diamond Princess cruise ship is much more likely to be present and spread in Japan than the U.S. Everyone knows the Chinese have poorer hygiene habits. No reason to downplay it. Our lives are worth more than political correctness. I find it refreshing how air travel to China can be cut to zero and there are no problems in the U.S. I wish people in the past consciously decided to support their people in the states, Europe, Argentina, Brazil and Australia instead of enriching China with excessive trade.
@Johnson Roberson I really don’t think I trivialized the viral threat at all. Quite the opposite, I said I would cancel trip to China in the summer EVEN if this virus is eventually eradicated.
If Coronavirus starts to spread in Japan in the spring, of course I will pull the plug. I have two young kids, and would never risk their health needlessly. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to eliminate all risks related to travel, as you well know. We may get food poisoning in Japan or catch something else. And honestly, our biggest risk is driving on I-4 to Orlando airport.
I’m hoping warm weather kills this outbreak once and for all, for the sake of people living there, not so much my trip. Whether one should travel to Asia in a near future is a personal decision. I’m not trying to influence anybody, just sharing my thoughts.
I was in Malaysia for two weeks over Chinese New Year and while about a third of Asian people wore masks that are completely ineffective against viruses, no one seemed sick. Everything was fine. Stick with your plans unless things change substantially.
@Christian I’m glad you had an uneventful holiday in Asia! I guess these masks make people feel like they are doing something. So I don’t necessarily blame them, even if the effect is marginal at best.
Japan is not China. Whilst the virus is present in Japan, as it is in the USA, it’s (at least so far) trivial in its impact, as in the USA. Right now, there’s no conceivable reason to cancel a trip to Japan. The flights will be by far the most dangerous aspects, but then that’s the case with any flying right now.
@NB I completely agree! I don’t believe there is a good reason to cancel travel plans in Asia, aside from China. Obviously, things could easily change, but no need to overreact at this point. Even China will probably be safe in a few months, but I would not feel comfortable going there personally.
No.
@Michael Good! 🙂