Dilemma: Should I Dump my Membership Rewards Stash to Avios due to 40% Transfer Bonus?

As many of you probably know, Amex is currently running a 40% bonus on Membership Rewards transfers to British Airways Avios program:

I’ve said before that Avios currency is basically  “Jekyll and Hyde” of the miles and points world. It’s terrific in some cases, and absolutely awful on certain routes due to fuel surcharges or absence of award seats. In the past, I’ve taken advantage of transfer bonus from SPG program, only to be stuck with Avios stash for years due to lack of sAAver availability on American Airlines ( the only type of AA award accessible via BA program).

But let’s be fair, when Avios program is good, it’s really good. I’ve used up every  last point I had in my account, and got excellent value in the process. Case in point: redeeming 10,000 Avios on non-stop flight from Auckland to Melbourne. Another recent example: paying just 4,500 Avios for economy  flight from Melbourne to Sydney, free checked bags included. In both cases I got close to 1.5 cents per point, which to me is fabulous. I’m very much an “economy class” gal.

If you are new to miles and points, I recommend you read my post on US “sweet spots” in Avios program. A huge perk for families is the fact that you can combine miles between family members. You also don’t have to pay close-in booking fees. Last but not least, if you cancel your award ticket, you only lose what you’ve paid in taxes. On domestic US routes it’s only $5 for one-way ticket, including Hawaii routes. In short, Avios  currency is excellent for families and those who tend to plan their trips at the last minute.

It’s a quirky program, for sure, but to me, the good outweighs the bad. But is it so good that it’s worth foregoing flexibility of Membership Rewards points in order to speculatively transfer to Avios due to 40% bonus? I can’t answer that question for you because I’m debating on this one myself. But let me share some pros and cons that are going through my mind.

The case for transferring MR points to Avios 

1) I speculatively value Avios at around 0.8 cents apiece and MR points at around 1.15 cents. If you factor in 40% bonus, that’s like getting a return of 1.13 cents per MR point. It’s basically a wash.

2) I really need to use the term “semi-speculative” here. You see, I have a bunch of travel plans that will likely involve BA program. I’ve already shared my hope to visit Hawaii in 2020,  where Avios currency would come in really handy. Also, I would like to go on a tall ship cruise (with sails!) that  leaves  from one of the Caribbean islands. There are several lines that offer those, and I’ll put a post on this topic at some point.

We live in Florida, and who has the best coverage to Caribbean from my neck of the woods? You guessed it, American Airlines. Many of these cruises start in Grenada, St. Maarten or St. Lucia, so flying from Miami makes the most sense.Often, American Airlines is the only game in town.

Plus, the routes happen to cost  less via Avios then they do via AAdvantage program. A flight from Miami to St. Lucia will cost 10,000 Avios vs. 15,000 AA miles. Add in MR 40% bonus, and it starts looking like a real bargain, doesn’t it?

Last but not least, I’m  hoping to take my family to Brazil within the next few years. The plan is to spend a few nights in Iguazu Falls area and finish in Rio de Janeiro before flying back to Miami.

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p style=”text-align: center;”>Photo by Agustín Diaz on Unsplash

It’s something I’ve wanted to do for a long time, and Avios program is an excellent option here as well. The flight form Miami to Rio costs 25,000 Avios vs. 30,000 AA miles.

3) If I transfer my MR points, I don’t have to worry about Amex confiscating them. It’s a legitimate concern these days, especially if your consumer behavior tends to look abnormal (guilty!)

The case against transferring MR points to Avios

1) At the moment I don’t have any other flexible currency, so my precious 85,000 MR points is all I’ve got. Due to 5/24 rule and various other bank restrictions, I also don’t have a way to replenish my stash easily. I pretty much gave up on UR points, and Citi has a 24-months bonus restriction after you cancel your existing Thank You card.

There are still a few Amex MR cards I can probably sign up for in the future, but they won’t provide me with a ton of points. I have to  be really picky and make sure the juice is worth the squeeze. I’ve mentioned before that I hope to fly to Amsterdam  on Delta the next time we go to visit my family in Europe (which will probably be after our trip to Brazil). By dumping my stash to Avios, I will be putting that plan in jeopardy.

2) My plans depend completely on sAAver availability on American Airlines, plus Alaska Air for flights to Hawaii. If it’s not there, then Avios will be totally useless. Well, you can technically redeem points on LATAM ( OneWorld carrier) for flights to Brazil, but that one is not a guarantee either.  I’m sure I’ll burn the points eventually regardless, but they may end up sitting in my account for years like they did last time.

3) There may be a cash sale on my desired routes, which will render mileage redemption obsolete. I’ve seen rates from Miami to Brazil for as low as $350 all-in. Oh, and I also once booked flights to Iguazu Falls from Orlando for something like $270 per person, but cancelled them because we would only have three nights in South America. I’m all for “carpe diem”, but that seemed a bit crazy even to me.

4) BA  may gut the Avios program before I get a chance to use up the miles, though it’s always a possibility when you transfer flexible points without an immediate use.

So, 3 pros and 4 cons.

Going after the low-hanging fruit in the meantime

I’m still not sure what I’m going to do, though thankfully I have till November 15h to decide. I’m leaning towards sitting this one out with the hope that Amex will bring Avios  bonus back at some point in the future. If I had a ton of MR points, it would be a no-brainer to transfer some of them in order to hedge my bets.

I definitely recommend you look at your upcoming plans as well. If you frequently fly on American Airlines and have some flexibility in your travel plans, it could be worth it to take a chance on this one. This is especially true if you live near AA or Alaska Air hubs on the west coast  and frequently travel to Hawaii.

As for me, I try to accumulate miles via sign-up bonus whenever possible. That’s why few months ago I signed up for Chase British Airways Visa Signature Card in my name, and recently got it in my husband’s name as well. Even though I just got approved for Delta co-branded card, we have enough bills coming our way that we should be able to meet the spending requirements on both without difficulty.

Chase BA card is currently not subject to 5/24 rule, though that may change in a near future. If all goes well, soon we should have over 100,000 Avios total. That will cover 4 one-way tickets to Brazil right there. Now if I just transfer my MR points via 40% bonus, we would be all set. Maybe.

Readers, are you considering taking advantage of this bonus? What would you do in my situation? 

Click here to view various credit cards and available sign-up bonuses