As most of you know, SPG and Marriott will officially merge into one program on August 18th. About a month ago, I wrote a post mentioning some of the upcoming changes, like new award chart and gutting of travel packages.
Since then even more news items have trickled in. Frequent Miler reports that existing travel packages that have not yet been used to book a stay will be in limbo between August 18th and September 17th. Somebody on Flyertalk has also posted a leaked copy of “T and C” in the new combined program that supposedly indicates that fancy “off the charts” properties will NOT be bookable via standard rate after all.
Is your head spinning yet? I know mine is. But here is the thing. If you are a normal traveler who goes on few trips each year, and you don’t have any specific plans for Marriott/SPG points, your only dilemma right now should probably be which travel package to get.
In a way, I’m glad that I don’t have any SPG/Marriott points because I would be driving myself nuts with this question: United miles or Southwest points? But I absolutely would be getting one or the other. And you probably should too.
How much are Marriott points really worth?
That is the big question, isn’t it? Everyone will have a different answer, but let me give you mine. I speculatively value Marriott point at 0.5 cents apiece. I absolutely would pay more if I had specific plans. But right now if you offered me Marriott points for 0.51 cents, I would probably pass.
Here is the logic behind it. Under new program you will be able to transfer 3 Marriott points to 1 mile. If you transfer 60k Marriott points, you will get an extra 5k miles on top of it. I value miles in most programs at about 1 cent each, but would pay a little bit more for Southwest points.
By this logic, I should really value Marriott points at 0.33 cents apiece. However, the fact that you get a bonus of 5k miles at a certain threshold, plus the ability to redeem points towards hotels, brings the number to 0.5 cents. As I’ve said before, this assumes that I don’t have any specific plans at the moment.
Hotels in Marriott program aren’t exactly dirt cheap on points, and the new program will make many of the existing SPG bargains disappear into oblivion. On average, beachfront properties will cost around 35k points. That would be an equivalent of paying $175. Not horrible during peak season, but not dirt cheap either.
Plus, remember, for that rate you are getting a basic hotel room. Not ideal if you have kids. Sure, there are properties that cost $1,000 per night that will supposedly cost just 60k points for a limited period of time. If you would otherwise pay the retail rate they command, great! Hold on to your points till the new program kicks in.
Otherwise, consider converting them to travel package at the existing rate while you still can.
United miles, Southwest points or something else?
This is what the new and simplified structure will look like on August 18th:
So, in order to get 100,000 miles (the most lucrative option), you will need at least 330,000 Marriott points. You’ll also receive 10% more United MileagePlus award miles, up to 12,000 more miles.
Here is the current rate for United:
If like me, you value Marriott points at 0.5 cents apiece and United miles at 1 cent apiece, it would be close to an even trade without taking the 7-night Category 1-5 hotel certificate into consideration. Sure, Marriott hasn’t been very forthcoming with details on how the existing certificates will map out, but I seriously doubt that you will get hosed.
I predict that you should be able to use them near Disney and even at a few beachfront properties. If you have enough Marriott/SPG points, consider redeeming a Category 6 travel package. As long as you have some flexibility, you should be able to put the hotel cert to good use. Even if you end up staying only 4 nights, it will probably still be worth it. Like I said, it’s mostly about the miles. Look at the hotel cert as an extra bonus thrown in, and you won’t be disappointed.
Consider getting a United travel package if:
1) You live near United hub and frequently fly United.
2) You have family overseas. My parents live in the deep corner of Eastern Europe, and United is one of few Star Alliance programs that doesn’t pass along fuel surcharges on Lufthansa (our preferred carrier).
3) You prefer traditional miles to fixed-value points, and don’t like to deal with foreign call centers when it comes to making award redemptions. With United you can do everything online, and that’s worth something.
Southwest option:
Southwest is a great option for big families who usually fly domestically during peak season. The points are worth around 1.4 cents towards Wanna Get Away fares, sometimes more on international flights. I currently speculatively value Rapid Rewards points at around 1.1 cents apiece.
That’s why I said that for me personally, it would be a toss-up between United and Southwest. I do currently have around 100k Rapid Rewards points and 0 United miles, so I would probably choose the latter in order to have some diversification. YMMV
Consider getting a Southwest package if:
1) You live near an airport served by Southwest and usually fly during peak times.
2) You tend to drag a lot of luggage with you. Southwest lets you bring two bags free.
3) You happen to have a Southwest co-branded credit card that lets you redeem Rapid Rewards points toward valuable gift cards on 100:1 basis. That would give you a hedge because 120,000 points will be worth at least $1,200 in gift cards for places like Walmart, Target and Amazon.
Alaska, Avios and other potentially lucrative options:
Alaska miles are considered to be the most valuable, which is fair enough. I wouldn’t get this type of travel package, but I can see why you would if you live on the west coast. Alaska miles are quite versatile because you can get a free stopover on one-way awards.
For example, if you are flying from Sydney to LAX, you can stop in Fiji for few days, and pay just 40k Alaska miles total, plus tax. It will depend on award availability on Fiji Airways, but it’s just one example of what’s possible. Also, Alaska has reasonable rates on many west coast routes, starting at just 5k miles one-way in economy.
Some people will value Avios program option for its ability to get flights to Hawaii from many west coast cities for just 12.5k Avios one-way. You can redeem on either Alaska Air or American, assuming there is a low-level availability. Avios program is also quite valuable for those who like to have flexibility.
If you cancel your award flight, you will only lose what you’ve paid in taxes. So, on most domestic routes (including Hawaii) it will mean just $5 one-way per ticket. Avios can come in handy on some intra-European and intra-Australian routes where tickets can cost as little as 4.5k Avios one-way in economy.
American Airlines AAdvantage program as well as Delta SkyMiles are often bashed in the hobby, but they too can be quite valuable under the right circumstances. It just depends on your travel patterns/plans.
Bottom line
I can’t say definitively whether you should hold on to your SPG/Marriott points or whether you should burn them on a travel package at the current rate while you still can. Only you can answer that. Still, if you are an “average Joe” traveler, I strongly recommend you at least consider the latter option.
Sure, having flexible points is great because it gives you more options. That said, if you tend to stick to mostly one carrier or frequent flyer program, is it really that critical?
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Author: Leana
Leana is the founder of Miles For Family. She enjoys beach vacations and visiting her family in Europe. Originally from Belarus, Leana resides in central Florida with her husband and two children.
I have 50k spg and alot of chase points…should I transfer over to Marriot and buy a package? How flexible are the hotels since I tend to travel when kids are out of school which is peak season
@Yzguy96 I wouldn’t transfer UR points to Marriott program if I were you. My article was meant for those who are sitting on 90k+ SPG points with no specific plans for them. You would have to transfer 120k UR points to have enough for the lowest priced package. Those points already transfer to Southwest and United 1:1. That means you would be using your existing 50k SPG points for a 7-night highly restricted hotel cert in a Cat. 1-5 property, which isn’t a good deal. This is a terrible arbitrage opportunity, don’t do it.
I’m at about 870K SPG points and can’t decide what to do! Ugh, so many options and scared to pull the trigger on any of them.
@Danny That’s the curse of having a ton of points! 🙂 Well, you don’t have to convert ALL of them to travel packages. I recommend you look at your travel plans next year and proceed accordingly. It might be worth it to get the most expensive package with the hope of later using it at a fancy St. Regis property. Points are only worth something when you actually use them. You did a good job accumulating them, not it’s time to have some fun.
We have close to 40k SPG points, and I have no idea what to do with them. I honestly have never used them for hotels so I was hoping to use them for airline transfer partners. I hope the transfer rate is still good or I’m in trouble.
@Stephanie No worries! Your SPG points will automatically convert to Marriott points via 1:3 rate. And Marriott has confirmed that current SPG mileage transfer will stay. So, your 40k SPG points will still transfer to 50k Miles under the new scheme. You need a minimum of 90k SPG points to redeem for lowest priced travel package, so it’s not really an option for you.
I do recommend you look at how the current SPG hotels will map out under the new award chart. Click on my first linked post for that. It could be worth it to book some hotels speculatively before they go up in price.
I only have around 80k Marriott points right now, but I’ve been able to get outsized value from some 5-night redemptions at pricey places. We did a 5-night club level at a Marriott in the D.C. metro, and we have a 5-night redemption near Disneyland coming up. Both places had around a $2k cash rate for the time, and other hotels in the area had a pricey cash rate as well, so I think I got incredible value.
When looking at my 2019 travel forecast, I’m not seeing a need for a 5-night stay at a Marriott. Instead, I could use 2 nights at pricey Jackson Hole, WY where cash rates can exceed $300/night during the dates we’re intending to visit. So, it won’t quite be as good as my D.C. or Anaheim value (that 5th night helps!) but it should still be more than $0.01/point.
I realize that’s not typical, but I’m happy when I can find some sweet spot redemptions!
Kacie, there is no question that you got incredible value! Yeah, if you have specific plans that allow you to get an outsized return on hotels, it’s best to hang on to points. The same goes for those who like to go on road trips and can utilize Cat. 1 or 2 hotels. Not every family tends to fly each year, so in those cases frequent flyer miles won’t do much to save on vacations. It’s “different strokes for different folks” kind of thing.
But in general, this blog’s audience tends to utilize miles on a regular basis. For my family, I can never have too many miles. Credit card bonuses are drying up, and opportunities aren’t as plentiful as they were before. That’s why I would absolutely burn SPG/Marriott points on a travel package (if I had them).